I recently had an email exchange you might interesting… – Rick 

Rick,

Thanks a lot for all of your tools to learn no limit hold em – they are very helpful!! What I have trouble with and would love to see in future tutorials are situations where you are on a draw and when to decide to continue drawing based on the size of the pot and the bet from your opponents.  When does it make sense to call (mathematically as opposed to this gut feeling that you should just fold). 

>> Debbie, draws can be quite troublesome, can’t they?  Most

draws don’t have great odds; for example:

  * Odds of making a set on the flop: only 1 in 8 attempts

  * Odds of making a gut-shot straight:  only 1 in 11

  * Odds of making flush on turn (w/ one card needed): 1 in 2 (not bad)

  * Odds of making flush on river (when turn missed): 1 in 5

I could go on.  First, you need to really know these odds *COLD* – off the top of your head.  You shouldn’t need a poker odds calculator for these basic odd estimates (you’ll never have one when playing offline, so just memorize them).

>> Second, it’s important to look at the odds the pot is offering you – your “pot odds”.  For example, the pot holds 1,000 chips and the bet is 200.  You’re getting 5 to 1 pot odds.  Now, if you need to make a set (1 in 8), you have what’s known as ”negative expectation” – if you make this play enough times, you’ll generally be losing money (e.g., playing for several hours or more).  On the other hand, if you have the opportunity to make a flush draw on the turn, you’re getting a good (positive) return.  You have a 50/50 chance to pick up your flush card on either the Turn or the River.  If you miss the turn, it’s 1 in 5 on the river, which would be about even money.

The second thing is the opposite of what I wrote above – if you know your opponent is on a draw – how do you know what the perfect bet is so that it doesn’t make sense for that other person to continue his draw (unless he’s a fish and just calls with anything)?  Some beginner players make the mistake of going all in at the wrong time or when it’s not necessary and lose all their chips because they get drawn out. 

>> If you’re up against a fish or inexperienced player, then logic may not apply… If you’re up against a good player, then one of THEIR factors for deciding on whether to stay on their draw will be their pot odds vs. hand odds (expectation).  So, it’s typically advised to bet 2/3 to 3/4 the size of the pot to make the pot odds highly unattractive, which will take most players out of a draw; however, it’s better if you have some kind of read (or at least an “inkling”) of what kind of draw they’re on.  For example, if there’s clearly a flush draw on the board and it’s the turn, you can surmise they have a 1 in 2 chance of making that draw – right?  In the similar case above (1,000 chips in pot) and it’s your turn to bet, you’d have to bet at least the size of the pot (1,000 chips) to make it even odds for them – 2,000 chips with 1,000 to bet, which would make it ‘even money’ for them.  If you want to chase them out, betting more than 1,000 is even more likley to achieve that result… assuming that’s the only dynamic involved. 

It’s actually a bit more complex than what I’ve just described, as you also need to consider YOUR POSITION and who else can and is likely to act after you bet (aside from your opponent on the draw).  This involves what are called “implied odds”, where you must estimate what multiple additional players may do, which will affect the pot odds after your bet.  For example, you bet 1,000 making it 2,000 in the pot, a 2nd player calls, and so now your opponent on the flush draw is getting 3 to 1 (3,000 in the pot, only 1,000 to stay in the pot), due to the 2nd opponent also calling.

Third (if i am not asking too much already) is how do pros like you sense a bluff – when I play online and live, sometimes it is very easy to realize that I have the best hand and sometimes it is quite difficult.

>> Well, I wish I were a pro, but I don’t make a living full-time at poker… before you can sense a bluff, you need to gain some insight into how a player plays “normally”.  If they’re a “tight” player and suddenly start raising, betting big or going all-in, odds are they have hit a big hand.  On the other hand, if the player’s style is an aggressive or maniac who plays a lot of hands, then it’s more difficult to put them on a specific hand, since they could be holding most anything.  Reading the pros is even harder… there are some common “tells”, a topic entire books have been written on.

>> One thing I look for when trying to detect a bluff is watching a player’s betting patterns.  If I see them stealing regularly and then I’m in the big blind and they fire a big bet out, it’s more likely than not they’re trying to steal my blinds.  Why?  Because in general, All Players get relatively Few Good Hands.  So, sometimes you have to take your chances against these types, preferably when you have a hand with multiple outs available.

>> Playing online, you’ll also sometimes get a sense for a player’s “timing”.  You develop a sense for when they’re strong or weak.  I don’t quite know how to describe it… I’ve heard it said “you’ve either got that sense, or you don’t”.  I think it’s a complex sensory response that comes from having played many thousands of hands against lots of players – some call it “gut feel”.  My own personal belief is it’s more than that…

The human brain is like a powerful organic computer, accepting multiple inputs from our sensors (eyes and ears on the computer), compiling a large “experience database”, then creating a large “neural network” of weights – information about various input scenarios and outcomes… which then informs the decision-making process.  It’s a complex process that takes place, which is why it’s often called “gut feel”.  Like I said, that’s my own theory, based on my understanding of neural networks and basic brain operation.

Sorry for the obscure answer, but that’s my best theory on how poker gut feel works – it comes from “experience” … lots of learnings and reinforcement.  I find the more often I play, the sharper these networks become.  The less often I play, the “rustier” and less accurate they are – even though my experience level has not changed, recency and frequency of play makes a really big difference in this additional “sensory perception” factor.

Thanks for your time,

>> My pleasure.  Hope that was helpful. – Rick

Debbie