Hey,

Check out the New Poker Club blog site.

There’s a new poker club coming that’s going to include team poker coaching, 1-1 coaching, mentoring, how-to videos and more.   Keep an eye on the blog for details.

Rick

I recently had an email exchange you might interesting… – Rick 

Rick,

Thanks a lot for all of your tools to learn no limit hold em – they are very helpful!! What I have trouble with and would love to see in future tutorials are situations where you are on a draw and when to decide to continue drawing based on the size of the pot and the bet from your opponents.  When does it make sense to call (mathematically as opposed to this gut feeling that you should just fold). 

>> Debbie, draws can be quite troublesome, can’t they?  Most

draws don’t have great odds; for example:

  * Odds of making a set on the flop: only 1 in 8 attempts

  * Odds of making a gut-shot straight:  only 1 in 11

  * Odds of making flush on turn (w/ one card needed): 1 in 2 (not bad)

  * Odds of making flush on river (when turn missed): 1 in 5

I could go on.  First, you need to really know these odds *COLD* – off the top of your head.  You shouldn’t need a poker odds calculator for these basic odd estimates (you’ll never have one when playing offline, so just memorize them).

>> Second, it’s important to look at the odds the pot is offering you – your “pot odds”.  For example, the pot holds 1,000 chips and the bet is 200.  You’re getting 5 to 1 pot odds.  Now, if you need to make a set (1 in 8), you have what’s known as ”negative expectation” – if you make this play enough times, you’ll generally be losing money (e.g., playing for several hours or more).  On the other hand, if you have the opportunity to make a flush draw on the turn, you’re getting a good (positive) return.  You have a 50/50 chance to pick up your flush card on either the Turn or the River.  If you miss the turn, it’s 1 in 5 on the river, which would be about even money.

The second thing is the opposite of what I wrote above – if you know your opponent is on a draw – how do you know what the perfect bet is so that it doesn’t make sense for that other person to continue his draw (unless he’s a fish and just calls with anything)?  Some beginner players make the mistake of going all in at the wrong time or when it’s not necessary and lose all their chips because they get drawn out. 

>> If you’re up against a fish or inexperienced player, then logic may not apply… If you’re up against a good player, then one of THEIR factors for deciding on whether to stay on their draw will be their pot odds vs. hand odds (expectation).  So, it’s typically advised to bet 2/3 to 3/4 the size of the pot to make the pot odds highly unattractive, which will take most players out of a draw; however, it’s better if you have some kind of read (or at least an “inkling”) of what kind of draw they’re on.  For example, if there’s clearly a flush draw on the board and it’s the turn, you can surmise they have a 1 in 2 chance of making that draw – right?  In the similar case above (1,000 chips in pot) and it’s your turn to bet, you’d have to bet at least the size of the pot (1,000 chips) to make it even odds for them – 2,000 chips with 1,000 to bet, which would make it ‘even money’ for them.  If you want to chase them out, betting more than 1,000 is even more likley to achieve that result… assuming that’s the only dynamic involved. 

It’s actually a bit more complex than what I’ve just described, as you also need to consider YOUR POSITION and who else can and is likely to act after you bet (aside from your opponent on the draw).  This involves what are called “implied odds”, where you must estimate what multiple additional players may do, which will affect the pot odds after your bet.  For example, you bet 1,000 making it 2,000 in the pot, a 2nd player calls, and so now your opponent on the flush draw is getting 3 to 1 (3,000 in the pot, only 1,000 to stay in the pot), due to the 2nd opponent also calling.

Third (if i am not asking too much already) is how do pros like you sense a bluff – when I play online and live, sometimes it is very easy to realize that I have the best hand and sometimes it is quite difficult.

>> Well, I wish I were a pro, but I don’t make a living full-time at poker… before you can sense a bluff, you need to gain some insight into how a player plays “normally”.  If they’re a “tight” player and suddenly start raising, betting big or going all-in, odds are they have hit a big hand.  On the other hand, if the player’s style is an aggressive or maniac who plays a lot of hands, then it’s more difficult to put them on a specific hand, since they could be holding most anything.  Reading the pros is even harder… there are some common “tells”, a topic entire books have been written on.

>> One thing I look for when trying to detect a bluff is watching a player’s betting patterns.  If I see them stealing regularly and then I’m in the big blind and they fire a big bet out, it’s more likely than not they’re trying to steal my blinds.  Why?  Because in general, All Players get relatively Few Good Hands.  So, sometimes you have to take your chances against these types, preferably when you have a hand with multiple outs available.

>> Playing online, you’ll also sometimes get a sense for a player’s “timing”.  You develop a sense for when they’re strong or weak.  I don’t quite know how to describe it… I’ve heard it said “you’ve either got that sense, or you don’t”.  I think it’s a complex sensory response that comes from having played many thousands of hands against lots of players – some call it “gut feel”.  My own personal belief is it’s more than that…

The human brain is like a powerful organic computer, accepting multiple inputs from our sensors (eyes and ears on the computer), compiling a large “experience database”, then creating a large “neural network” of weights – information about various input scenarios and outcomes… which then informs the decision-making process.  It’s a complex process that takes place, which is why it’s often called “gut feel”.  Like I said, that’s my own theory, based on my understanding of neural networks and basic brain operation.

Sorry for the obscure answer, but that’s my best theory on how poker gut feel works – it comes from “experience” … lots of learnings and reinforcement.  I find the more often I play, the sharper these networks become.  The less often I play, the “rustier” and less accurate they are – even though my experience level has not changed, recency and frequency of play makes a really big difference in this additional “sensory perception” factor.

Thanks for your time,

>> My pleasure.  Hope that was helpful. – Rick

Debbie    

Howdy,

I hope this entry finds you well today.  If
you’re like me, you’re finding online poker
has become a lot tougher over the past few
months.  It’s become extremely competitive,
due largely to two factors:

  1) Shrinking number of beginners and fish

  2) Level of play has increased markedly.

With the increased pressure on poker rooms
to block U.S. players, coupled with the
perceived risks associated with making deposits,
a lot of “casual” U.S. players have simply
stopped playing online.

This hasn’t really phased the more serious
and experienced players, who don’t have to
make deposits too often due to having a
much larger bankroll already built up and
being stronger players.  It is taking its
toll on everyone else, however…

The overall result is a narrowing of the
field.  Think of the online poker community
as being in one “big multi-game tournament”
together, conceptually, for a minute. 

Many less experienced and recreational players
are getting knocked around severely here in
this new era of poker, and finding it’s just not
as simple and as much fun as it once was playing
online poker.  Are you seeing this in your play?

However, at the same time I’ve noticed the
level of play has increased sharply.  It’s much
tougher now because you’re typically playing
against a field that’s much more experienced,
better trained and more prepared than ever. 

I’d like to think that I had something to
do with helping up-level a lot of players’
skills, but the reality is there are just
many great courses, books and materials
available for the beginner and intermediate
players that everyone is using now.

I know players who have invested thousands
of dollars in their games, both in training
materials and “online training” (deposits).
They have earned their advanced player status,
and now play top-notch poker.

I’ve also met players who are making regular
deposits into their poker accounts, and who
simply believe it’s the cost of playing poker!
Well, it IS the cost of playing online poker,
unless you make some drastic changes…

I also know those who haven’t invested in their
games, and they wonder why they aren’t keeping
up…  Which one are you?

All of this means that if you aren’t already
playing at an “advanced” level, you’re losing
more often than not now, and that’s not likely
to change unless you take action to change it.

Now, I’m not trying to discourage anyone, just
calling it like I see it out there today.
I’ve received a lot of emails from players that
confirms my observations, too.

As yet another data point, I just went through a
losing streak of my own recently.  We all go
through such troughs, but this one was worse than
I’ve ever experienced before.  It caused me to
sit back and objectively analyze my own game
and the poker environment more closely.

Instead of getting discouraged, I decided to fight
back! I realized it was high time for me to
take my game up a few notches in order to keep up
with everyone out there – and that I was NOT going
to get there without some assistance and fresh
ideas and skills development. 

Here’s what I did about my game. I went looking for some
advanced material published by poker pros who
REALLY are making 6 figure incomes at poker today,
BOTH online and offline in the big name tournaments
(e.g., World Series of Poker).

Here’s what I found and what I’m now actually using.
Bryan Micon recently released his 2nd Edition
“Micon System 2″.

I figured, what do I have to lose?  I’m tired of
giving my money up to the pros and sharks, and
getting discouraged by losing, so it’s time to
study up again, and then get back in there amongst
‘em and take some payback!

The Micon System II did the trick for me. It consists
of six audio CD’s (actually, they’re downloadable),
plus a printable “cheat sheet” providing Bryan’s
system for multi-table tournament play.

Here’s a link where you can learn more:

http://www.RoyalFlushClub.com/miconps.html

So, who is Bryan Micon?  Bryan is a pro player
who finished 63rd in the 2006 WSOP main event,
winning $123,000.  And according to Poker DB,
Bryan has accumulated winnings of over $241,000
in online tournaments at Poker Stars and other
poker rooms.

Bryan qualifies as not only advanced player,but
also a real poker pro who is actually qualfied to
teach the rest of us his advanced tournament
skills.

So, I bought his Micon 2 system and went to work
on it. I took notes throughout it, while listening
to Bryan and his sidekick, Chris Eversaul, who
interviews Bryan very professionally.

For me, listening to audio is an easier way to learn
than reading an e-book.  I also find that taking
notes is a great way to learn and retain the
information (like in school) and to go back and
review it again afterwards.

By the way, if you’d like a copy of my personal
notes on the Micon 2 System, just do the following:

  1. Click on the special link in this email

  2. Email me a copy of your proof
     of purchase of the Micon system

  3. I’ll email you back with my personal
     notes (for the first 100 to join me),
     once I have them formatted nicely for
     you).

http://www.RoyalFlushClub.com/miconps.html

The Micon system also comes with a very useful
tool I had been thinking about creating for
myself (Bryan just beat me to it). 

It’s a single page “strategy sheet” covering
exactly how to play the various stages of a
multi-table tournament Bryan’s way, including:

  * How to play types of starting hands
  * From different positions
  * In limped vs. raised pots
  * At different stages of tournament

This “cheat sheet” is really good and it can
be printed out in color and used right there
while playing online, until you get the hang
of Bryan’s winning tournament system.  Now I
don’t need to create such a strategy sheet for
myself and others, because Bryan’s is definitely
top-notch.

Bryan labels the Micon 2 “Full Disclosure”,
where he tells it all – his exact methods
for playing and winning tournaments.  As
an experienced player and poker teacher
and coach, I can tell you his system is
the real deal.

I’ve been playing and teaching poker for a
number of years.  I’ve read the top books,
including Harrington’s latest, which are
all very good.  However, Bryan’s system
is simple enough for anyone to learn and
apply quickly and get RESULTS (which at the
end of the day is the only thing that really
matters – getting results).

For example, Bryan uses a betting strategy
that I had not realized before, which
results in winning more pots than usual
(even when you don’t hit the flop). This
is critically important, because as you
know, we never get that many great starting
hands, so it’s important to win with bad
cards at times, too.

Bryan’s betting strategy makes it virtually
impossible for opponents to put you on a
particular starting hand, which is one of
the keys to Bryan’s success (among others
that he discloses in Micon 2).

As a result of going through Bryan’s Micon 2
system, my play has now improved markedly again,
and I’m now holding my own and winning again
against the grinders, sharks and the pros out
there online.

I’m now enjoying playing poker again, because
believe me, I don’t like losing!

I’m more confident in facing the online pros
and other top grinders that are lurking on
online tournament tables because I know that
I’m once again properly armed to take them on.

Don’t get me wrong here.  My e-books and tools
are still very useful for beginners and the
intermediate player, but if you’re ready to
take the next step, Micon 2 is it.

The Micon 2 system comes with an 8 week unconditional
guarantee, so there’s no risk to just giving it a
try and seeing for yourself if helps you as much as
it has me.

I’ll be very interested in hearing how you do with
the Micon 2 System. 

To get my personal notes on the Micon 2 system,
remember to send me a copy of your purchase
receipt. 

Since this is a manual effort for me to fulfill,
I’ve decided to limit the number of my notes I’ll
make available to the first 100 who respond using
my affiliate links contained in this email.

Remember, you have a full 8 weeks to put Bryan’s
system to use and decide if you want to keep it. 
Please keep my notes either way, just for taking my
advice on improving your game and using my links.

http://www.RoyalFlushClub.com/miconps.html

I now realize that it’s still possible to win
consistently today, but ONLY if you’re armed
with the right advanced techniques, like the
Micon 2.  I hope it helps you as much as it
has me.

Yours for top-notch poker results,

Rick Braddy

www.RoyalFlushClub.com
www.PokerTester.com
www.BetterHoldem.com
www.TourneyMentors.com
www.SitAndGoVideo.com

P.S.  If you’ve looked at or tried the Micon
system before, be sure to have a fresh look at
MICON 2 – it’s much better and different than
the original Micon 1 course.

http://www.RoyalFlushClub.com/miconps.html

How many times have you been trapped by a more
experienced or tricky player?  We all fall into these
traps from time to time… but why?  How can we detect
a trap and avoid it?

First, what is a trap?  A trap play is where an opponent
with a strong hand represents weakness, luring their
opponent into overplaying their hand.  For example, I
hit a nut flush (Ace-high flush) on the flop.  I have the
best hand at the table now, unless the board pairs
(such that someone could pull a boat or four of a
kind – not likely).

So, instead of betting it big, I might throw out a smaller
bet or even check it (slowplay).  Another player holding
big slick (A-K) pairs up with an Ace on the flop, thinking
he’s got the best hand so far.  Another player has a
small pair (e.g., 4’s) and picks up a set on the flop
(assuming flop was something like 4-A-J).

Now, had I bet really big or raised back too early, the
player holding the Ace would realize he’s trouble and the
small pair would’ve likely folded pre-flop.   Since
I just checked it down, no reason to be afraid of me,
since I’m obviously on some kind of a draw…

The person with the three of a kind (the 4’s) tosses out a
bet of 4 times the blind.  The guy with Aces calls it.  After
delaying slightly, I go ahead and also call it (why not,
I’m getting decent enough pot odds).

So, I’m trapping them both at this point, letting them bet
into me and just calling their bets.  The same thing happens
again on the turn, except the player with Aces drops out. 

Now it’s just me and the set of 4’s.  They bet big again, this
time the size of the pot.  Again, after a slight pause, I just call
them “reluctantly”.  Then comes the river, and they go all-in. 

I immediately call them…oops!  They’re sunk!  What happened
here?

These players never asked themselves two simple questions:

1)  Why is he calling that raised pot (on the flop and turn)?

2)  What hands might he be holding?  What could he be
up to by calling my bets like that?  Trapping?  On a draw?

It’s crucially important to THINK before you ACT by understanding
what the other players are actually doing.  It’s also very
important not to underestimate your competition, as there are
some very wily players out there…

There’s a potential flush showing on this flop, and since I’m
kind of “lurking” in this hand, it’s very suspicious behavior,
and unlikely I’m on a draw calling those kind of big bets.

Unless you’re playing against a beginner or a drunk, there’s
no reason to believe someone will likely call a raise that’s 4
times the big blind on a draw.  That’s the first mistake -
assuming another player has no hand and not realizing why
they’re behaving as they are.

Second, the board is showing a possible flush – and both of
these players aren’t holding it!  Just because I didn’t bet
on the flop does not mean I don’t have it!

Had either of these players slowed down and considered
my betting (calling) behavior, and asked themselves these
questions, they’d probably have realized what was going on.
Whether the player with the set of 4’s could fold them is
another story

Aside from a trap, what else could have kept me in this hand?

Traps aren’t easy to detect.  When a good player calls a big
bet, there’s a better than average chance they are trapping!

Good players don’t usually call bets – they usually raise/re-raise
with strength or fold.  They don’t often waste their money on
draws, so if they’re lurking there with you it isn’t out of
curiosity…

Nevertheless, if you aren’t spending twice as much time thinking
about what your opponent’s hand might be, based upon their
betting (calling) pattern and position, you should be. 

Your own hand strength is quickly and easily determined.  Spend
more time on your opponents, learning to read their normal
betting patterns, then when they do something that doesn’t
match that pattern, slow down and ask yourself why.

I hope this helps you become a better trapper (and avoid
falling in yourself

Rick

P.S.  Check out our new poker tournament coaching and
mentoring program, where you can get 1-1 private poker
tournament coaching that’s working wonders for our
students:

http://www.RoyalFlushClub.com/tourney-mentors.html

Here’s an interesting email conversation…on getting blinded out. – Rick

Hi Rick,

I thought I would ask you a question that I sent to both Roy Rounder and Johnny. I bought both of their systems and both are very similar. They both have helped me allot in online games. However when I use the same strategy tight/aggressive and play the only the hands they suggest the blinds eat me up.

In the online games the blinds start at 10/20 and go up much slower then in a casino.  In the casino they start at 25/50 and go up every ten minutes. Do you have any suggestions you can give me so that what works online will also work in casinos?

Regards

Joe M.

P.S. Are there any books or strategies that focus on playing in casinos rather than online?

Joe,

Yes, you must bluff and steal more often Joe.  It’s tough to do, but something that’s what everyone who wins consistently learns to do.  The reality is, on average we each only pick up one really good starting hand about every 2 to 3 rounds, which is exactly why the blinds eat the tight players right up!

Picking the players to target (the tighter players) and the positions to bluff/steal (the later positions) and the times to bluff/steal (when you “detect” weakness) are the keys in my experience.

I dedicated an entire chapter to bluffing and blind stealing in my Secrets of Winning Sit and Go Tournaments e-book, which provides proven strategies for this and many other elements of a winning poker repertoire.

Also, when you do end up playing tight you’ll be projecting a tight “table image”.  Once you learn to bluff and steal under the proper circumstances, you can leverage that tight table image by jumping in and representing strong hands that you don’t actually have.  For example, you have 9/10 of clubs in the small blind, which means you’re next to last to act pre-flop.  One player limps in and another player, who’s been obviously stealing regularly, raises it 3 times the big blind once again.  Now it’s up to you.  You have one limper (who may fold once it gets back around to him) and a blind stealer in this pot.  You don’t have a strong starting hand, but you have good pre-flop position. 

You re-raise it to 6 times the big blind, the limper quickly folds, and now the other player is taking a long time to make his “decision”.  Finally, after thinking about this tight player suddenly re-raising out of the clear blue, he decides not to push his steal attempt any further and folds.

 You must become capable of reading these other players like I’m describing above, detecting weakness (limper) and stealing (repeatitive raising), and occasionally challenging them to take down the blinds, which buys you another few rounds of solid play.  You must also be capable of recognizing “sharks” – more experienced players who are capable of trapping by slow-playing hands (a good subject for another blog entry).

Make sense?

 So, what happens if you get re-raised back?  You probably have to fold it, unless you’re pretty certain he’s bluffing back at you.  Once you do see the flop, you must then continue your bluff, or you’ll lose the entire hand. 

Now, you could also play pocket Aces or small pairs like I’ve described above, especially with 4 to 5 players.  To do this, you must have a good read on your opponents. 

If you’re just slinging your own hand around at the table, it’s only a matter of time until you lose, since the cards won’t hold up over the long haul (typically).  You must bluff and steal successfully in poker – it’s one of the fundamental poker skills.

 This takes a lot of courage and some experience at reading the other players.  It’s never easy, but it’s an absolutely essential part of the game.

Great question!  I hope that’s helpful.

Rick

 In my Sit and Go Poker Video, I explain the X Factor^TM method for playing tournaments, including a simple playbook.  The X Factor System is an enhanced version of the “M” system recently popularized by Dan Harrington in his Harrington on Hold’em (which I first learned about elswhere and recently discovered its actual heritage).  Dan reportedly credits Paul Magril with having originally invented the “M” system.  M a proven, effective approach to tournament play that’s now even easier to understand and follow using the playbook.

So, my X Factor Playbook system is a derivative of the M system, where I attempt to simplify and standardize how tournament play should progress (esp. for sit and go poker tournaments) based on the X factor value.

I just wanted to clear that up, now that I understand its origins more fully.

Rick

Sit and Go Texas Holdem Tournament Poker Tutorial, Part 1

Rick Braddy’s Sit and Go Poker Video, over 1 hour of tutorial information, lessons and actual poker tournament play at Poker Stars.

In this video, Rick covers tournament fundamentals, strategies, the X Factor system and method for winning, along with many useful tools and resources available to poker players today.

Sit and Go Texas Holdem Tournament Poker Tutorial, Part 2

Early game action, where we get our feet on the ground in this sit and go tournament.

Rick Braddy narrates the game, discussing strategy, starting hands, position, betting, bluffing, pot odds, hand odds, and much more.

Sit and Go Texas Holdem Tournament Poker Tutorial, Part 3

My X Factor Playbook, a proven system for winning and profiting at sit and go poker tournaments.

The X Factor system provides clear guidelines and a simple, but effective, strategy for playing poker tournaments, managing your money as the pot odds, stack size and game progresses.

Also covers how to handle push/fold mode, where you go all-in when short-stacked as the blinds and antes go up.

Sit and Go Texas Holdem Tournament Poker Tutorial, Part 4

More of the lengthy middle game, the part of a poker tournament where you must exercise both patience and a great deal of care.